How Can Nations Use Cyber Operations to Further Their Interests During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
We are in the middle of the worst pandemic since the Hong Kong flu 50 years ago. COVID-19 directly affects the life of millions of people worldwide every day, throwing the patterns and routines of theirs lives into flux. As always change brings opportunity; geopolitical forces continue to exert themselves while we self-isolate and will take advantage of these opportunities as they are discovered.
What doors are being opened? The most obvious are disinformation campaigns especially considering the upcoming US election, Hong Kong protests, rising tension between Taiwan and Mainland China, increased Scottish independence sentiment post-Brexit, among other current events. The elevated level of inter-group conflict these ongoing situations provide combines with the increased stress, anger and uncertainty induced by COVID-19 to reduce social cohesion even further. As trust within and between societies drops lower adversaries will find narratives easier to create and manipulate to their own ends. There is no easy solution to limit the impact of these campaigns but governments should at least be aware of what they look like, big tech is also willing to work with government on social engineering projects where their interests align for example the Christchurch Call.
Whether news of Kim Jong Un’s demise ends up being false or not, the pandemic is the perfect opportunity for North Korea’s cyber units to cause havoc. The opportunity window may have already closed if they wish to attack South Korea’s health services while they are stretched due to the effectiveness of their response (summarized here). The US could be an attractive target due to how hard they have been hit, if they chose to launch cyber attacks to increase the COVID impact in the US the best target could be distribution networks rather than directly attacking hospitals. Redirecting deliveries of things like PPE, respirators etc to certain areas could cause widespread social unrest (as well as the direct effect of these items not being where they are needed) especially if the current left/right divide is leveraged. There is also the finance motive, it is highly likely Pyongyang engages in phishing campaigns using fake domains or even more targeted attacks against NGO’s and charities receiving large donations to combat COVID-19.
In Europe, Russia can look to advance it’s interests in Ukraine by taking advantage of the pressure the pandemic puts on the government. Attacks on critical infrastructure could push people towards the Kremlin who can offer safety in return for obedience. However, Russia’s poor response to COVID-19 would make this difficult to spin now. I think that in future a strong response to pandemics should be valued more highly as a soft power tool. A strong Russian response combined with failures (which could be triggered or magnified by cyber attacks from Russia) from the Georgian, Ukrainian, Belorussian, or Baltic state governments would have put Putin in a much stronger position.
Moving back to Asia, Indonesia have got a perfect opportunity to tighten their grip on West Papua. By employing some of the disinformation techniques used by Russia during the 2016 US election they could harm the reputation of the Papua New Guinean government. While undermining the Papuan response they can leverage their positive relations with Japan and South Korea to help improve their own response. By taking a two pronged approach Indonesia can show the West Papuan’s the benefits of being under Indonesian rule while simultaneously showing the negatives of being an an independent state or uniting with Papua New Guinea. The plausible deniability of cyber actions is key as it is best for Indonesia if the West Papuan independence/reunification movement(s) do not gather widespread international support.
And to finish up on a cynical note, it’s the perfect time to disclose a breach while everyone eyes are glued to COVID-19.
